Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 2.599962 2.757049 2.928039 3.129858 3.364133 3.630920 3.962957
2025-03-09 2.364604 2.570475 2.807667 3.107151 3.484859 3.960789 4.635659
2025-03-16 2.191085 2.419790 2.693271 3.055086 3.540415 4.204338 5.265476
2025-03-23 2.104884 2.357535 2.670033 3.102246 3.719186 4.642576 6.355115
2025-03-30 1.989984 2.246728 2.570540 3.030443 3.712979 4.798228 7.052032
2025-04-06 1.890701 2.147037 2.474984 2.950105 3.676793 4.890534 7.681333
2025-04-13 1.816243 2.073697 2.407538 2.900530 3.677349 5.042669 8.570773
2025-04-20 1.783168 2.051445 2.406012 2.944278 3.831113 5.521421 10.947122
2025-04-27 1.768798 2.052257 2.435053 3.035182 4.079189 6.295548 16.718117
2025-05-04 1.729157 2.016283 2.409021 3.036905 4.167476 6.752610 24.559500
2025-05-11 1.693648 1.983899 2.385623 3.039782 4.257622 7.265517 47.541678
2025-05-18 1.637388 1.920369 2.313291 2.956362 4.164830 7.218047 64.354030
2025-05-25 1.606355 1.892008 2.293071 2.961184 4.259378 7.830263 NaN
2025-06-01 1.574478 1.861167 2.267520 2.954909 4.330990 8.439462 NaN
2025-06-08 1.535821 1.819207 2.223064 2.912326 4.316721 8.731882 NaN
2025-06-15 1.521010 1.810367 2.228044 2.956191 4.505615 10.101764 NaN
2025-06-22 1.481816 1.765105 2.174879 2.891769 4.428515 10.122042 NaN
2025-06-29 1.442798 1.719038 2.118874 2.819131 4.323623 9.942144 NaN
2025-07-06 1.412150 1.684264 2.079218 2.774159 4.282018 10.115734 NaN
2025-07-13 1.402371 1.679328 2.085664 2.813894 4.458002 11.892525 NaN
2025-07-20 1.402018 1.687975 2.113679 2.896234 4.767310 15.933950 NaN
2025-07-27 1.384820 1.671173 2.100192 2.897793 4.856086 18.564181 NaN
2025-08-03 1.368688 1.655448 2.087744 2.900395 4.949581 22.319630 NaN